How Fast Do Multifamily Underwriting Assumptions Go Stale? Evidence from 2025–2026
A multifamily acquisition model rests on a handful of market inputs set once at the start of underwriting. This note measures how much three of them — debt cost, rent-growth forecasts, and transaction activity — actually moved during 2025–2026, then runs a representative deal through the observed changes: enough to cut the 5-year levered IRR by up to 470 bps.
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